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Hurricanes

Forecasters see calmer hurricane season

Hurr

All clear for Easter.

The chance of a hurricane blowing across St. John later this year is markedly less than usual, according to scientists at Colorado State University.

The two men, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, are nationally known for their hurricane outlooks.

For the 2012 seaso, which begins June 1, they say there is a 34% probability of at least one major storm (category 3,4 or 5) tracking into the Caribbean.  Over the last century, the average probability has been 42%. The scientists say the tropical Atlantic has cooled more than normal, perhaps making a hurricane less likely.

Klotzbach and Gray suggest the 2012 season could produce 10 named storms, two of them to be classified as 'major'.

For the entire coastline of the US, there is a 42% a storm will make landfall; the average for the last century is 52%.

The scientists cautioned against letting your guard down. "Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season," they said.

"Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season's hurricane activity in early April," Klotzbach and Gray added. "We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public."

A pair of storms worth watching

Called "potentially dangerous" by WeatherUnderground's Dr. Jeff Masters, says Tropical Disturbance 92L "is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year."  However the storm is well south of the islands and computer projections show it well south of the Leeward Islands and Cuba. But forecasting models say it'll bring heavy rains to the islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.

Igor Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Igor is moving west and is north of the islands.  "The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 – 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, Masters said.  Odds favor the storm turning northwest without affecting land.

  • Jeff Masters' tropical storm update is here. (The map p;rojection is also from WeatherUnderground.)

Tropical storm can’t get restarted

Despite concerns yesterday, forecasters are less worried about tropical storm Gaston reforming and being a problem.

"Latest radar out of Martinique and Puerto Rico show a few heavy rain showers moving through the islands, but no organization to (them)," said Jeff Masters, a forecaster with WeatherUnderground.com.

"None of the computer models show Gaston redeveloping, and NHC has downgraded the odds of development to 10 percent."

Earl and Mongoose Junction

Radha Speer, who owns a shop at Mongoose Junction, has posted a bunch of photos of the beautiful shopping center, post-Earl. 

What you see is what they got. Lots of branches down, a few trees broken, evidence the wind speed was up there … in other words, there's a lot of clean up to do. But Speer's shots show no serious damage.

Glen This a picture of her husband, Glen, the architect and developer of Mongoose, wielding a chainsaw.

  • You can see all of the photos on her Facebook page here.

Hurricane video shot on a boat in Cruz Bay

Earl A couple of clips of Hurricane Earl's visit to St. John showed up on YouTube this morning. Thankfully, this is all old news.

Most were posted by "walshrmgmail," who, it appears, was on a boat in Cruz Bay harbor, shooting video as the storm began.

Gaston ran out of gas

Well, that was a real one-day-wonder.

Tropical Storm Gaston, whose computer models showed it nailing the island next Thursday, went 'poof.'  It became what's called in the trade a 'remnant low," probably due to its sucking in a lot of dry air which kind of starved the storm for energy.

The National Weather Service cautions, however (that's their job) the mass of unstable air is still moving west and could get new energy.

If it wasn’t one storm, it could be another

That's the way lots of St. John locals are thinking today.  They just weathered Earl, took notice of Fiona, but now there's Gaston.

In Disney's "Beauty and the Beast," the Gaston character was "everyone's favorite guy."  Gaston, the tropical storm, will not be. 

Computer models have the storm still far east of the island, but drawing a bead on the VIs.

Gaston

This image is from the National Hurricane Center.  It shows the projected area of hurricane force winds over the next five days.

CaribStorm.com's "Closest Point of Approach" tool  estimates Gaston could come as close as 100 miles next Thursday morning.  With a big wind area (Earl, today, is 500 miles wide), St. John could get hit.

St. John Returning to normal

A check of St. John Webcams shows some on and some off.  The "on" includes St. John Brewers' beautiful shot across Pillsbury sound.  Remember the islands like this.

Brewers

St. John's John Fuller (he also heads up St. John Rescue) blogged on StormCarib.com that Mongoose Junction's juice was restored midday Wednesday. 

"Looks like St. John caught the most of Earl," he continued, "but most of the folks I talked to in and around Cruz Bay were thankful it was mostly a vegetation clearing with little damage."

The Governor lifted curfew last night since electricity has largely been
restored on St. Thomas and St. John.  Government offices and schools
are also open today.

Video: Boats aground at Great Cruz Bay, Chocolate Hole

Steve Steve Simonsen, the world class photographer, was on the north side of Great Cruz Bay when Earl was pounding the island Monday evening at about 6.

He shot video. 

The camera is looking across the bay.  The Westin Resort is to the right, out of sight. You can see his video by clicking here.


Captbk

CaptainBK also posted some storm video to the Weather Channel. It shows too many boats on their sides on the beaches at Great Cruz and Chocolate Hole.  Watch it here.

St. John's Eric Lidicker posted on his Facebook page that St. John is messy but not devastated. "STJ was mostly cosmetic w tree damage since the soil was already saturated from all the rain we've had & new growth."