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Hurricanes

St. John: Hurricane update 10:00 a.m. EDT

Spicecam1

Earl slowed its forward motion overnight, delaying the arrival of its fury about 12 hours.  Now the National Hurricane Center says the center of the storm will pass northeast of St. John at about 6 p.m.

CaribStorm.com's "How Close" tool says the outer edge will be 70 miles away.  The storm's force is diminished from what it could have been. Earl is expected to be a Category 2 (96-110 mph) when it blows by.

Power's off in Cruz Bay.  The St. John Spicecam quit transmitting at about 7 a.m.  This is the last picture.  Notice it's blurry. The camera was getting blown around.  A surprising number of sailboats are still moored in the harbor.  How many will be damaged and end up in the Beach Bar, literally? (http://www.stjohnspice.com/stjohnspicecam.htm)

Fish Bay's Karen Radtke Facebooks: "What is it that dog's sense? Cagney is super hyper this morning." Karen's in training for the Susan G Komen 3Day for the Cure walk in Tampa Oct 29-31st.

Walter Hinds apparently hosted an all night hurricane preparedness party at his restaurant in Cruz Bay.  Martinis and more.  He posted, "It's 6:10 am and I am sitting on the deck of Hinds with some friends and I am holding a beverage (a martini). OK, now it is 7am & there is an hurricane in effect and the school bell across the street just rang…..PRICELESS."

CaribStorm's Dave posted this at dawn. "I have to go to work as one of our clients (a business owner) decided he wanted his hurricane shutters this morning. Nothing like waiting till the last minute and putting others at risk."

Hurricane Earl aimed at St. John

EarlEarl was upgraded to Hurricane status late Sunday morning. Its winds reach 75 miles an hour.

"Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours … Earl is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday," the National Hurricane Center said.

The track of Earl continued to shift westerly and it now looks like Hurricane earl will blow across St. John beginning after midnight Monday morning.  It is expected to have category 2>3 level winds between 96 and 130 miles an hour.

Hurricane Marilyn – the storm which ravaged the islands, in 1995, was a Cat 3.

Home owners, villa managers, and business folk began preparations last Thursday, moving outdoor furniture inside and tying down what was left.  By Friday evening, the sounds of hammering and nail guns could be heard, boarding up. StormCarib reports Monday flights out of St. Thomas have been canceled.

Here are hurricane resources on the Web:

Gonna be a close call from Tropical Storm Earl


Earl From the National Weather Service, via WeatherUnderground.com.

  • "Earl has become better organized this morning … All of the intensity guidance shows additional intensification during the next few days.

  • "On the forecast track … the center of Earl could approach the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday night.

  • "Earl could become a hurricane by tonight or Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles…140 km mainly to the north of the center."

StormCarib.com's "How Close Will it Come" tool now shows Earl's winds within 175 miles of St. John.

Earl’s storm path slips closer to St. John

"From weeks of relative and unusual quiet to uh oh!!!!" So writes Dave at StormCarbib.com. 

He is keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm, soon to be Hurricane, Earl.  Tracking map from WeatherUnderground.com

 The site has an interesting tool to let you see how close a storm will come to wherever you are.  As of Friday morning, the prediction was that Earl will pass 260 miles northeast of the island early Tuesday morning.

"At this point, all bets are off until it organizes better," cautions Dave. "The quicker it organizes, the quicker it should curve. 500 miles isn't much room for error so don't take that for granted." Dave continues, "Behind … Earl is several more waves on the African continent and it looks like the train is ready to run at full speed for a while."

The tracking map on the right is via WeatherUnderground.com. It updates the map for Earl daily at 5am, 11am, and 5 pm.