Gray again predicts above-average 2008 storm season

Colorado State University’s William Gray end the year with his look-ahead to 2008 saying he and his co-author see "above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean." 

In their extended forecast report of Atlantic hurricane activity Gray and Philip Klotzbach anticipate seven hurricanes Atlamntic region, which includes the Caribbean.  Three of them will be "major."  They also calculate an above-average probability that at least one storm, Category 3 or greater, will hit the U.S. mainland.

"This forecast is based  on a new extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data," the scientists wrote at (http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/), perhaps in defense of their recent record. Klotzbach and Gray forecast nine hurricanes for the 2007 season; only six formed.  While in 2006, of the nine hurricanes predicted, only five developed.

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