This summer could be a busy, and dangerous, storm season for the Virgin Islands.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an outlook saying there’s 70% chance as many as 20 named storms will roil the eastern Atlantic in the months ahead. That could mean 7-11 hurricanes, as many as six classified as major meaning winds above 111 miles an hour.
NOAA said its outlook is for an “active or extremely active” season to begin June 1 and last until Nov. 30.
The government’s outlook is in line with a forecast issued in April by scientists at Colorado State University. William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach are pioneers in seasonal hurricane forecasting. For almost 30 years, they have offered their outlooks. Earlier this year, they said “the probability of a named storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of (Puerto Rico) this year is 50%, 26%, and 8% respectively.
The April forecast was for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 of which could become hurricanes, and 3-6 of which could be Category 3 or higher.
Gray and Klotzbach will issue an updated analysis on June 3.
I love how the NOAA claims Hurricane season to start on June 1 – but if you look at the last 100+ years there have been no hurricanes in the USVI in June…
The hurricane predictions have had very little accuracy as of late – to the joy of the insurers.
Very true…..don’t borrow trouble…..
As an East Coast resident for almost 20 years I don’t remember a year they didn’t say it would be an ‘active hurricane season…” I think Mother Nature does what she wants, and trying to predict things like hurricanes is difficult. Its always just a ‘wait and see’ kind of thing.