Philip Klotzbachand William Gray issued their third forecast for this year and again reduced their expectations of Atlantic storms.
They say there may be 11 named storms, five of which may develop into hurricanes. But the VIs appear ‘safe,” which of course is a relative term.
In an expansion of their usual work, Klotzbach and Gray have also projected the chances of hurricanes coming within 100 and 50 miles of 32 countries or land masses, from Anguilla to the VIs.
The probability of one or mare Major Hurricanes (category 3,4 or 5) tracking within 50 miles of the USVI is put at 4%, the researchers said. There is a 14% chance a category 1 or 2 storm coming within 50 miles of the islands.
Klotzbach and Gray are not finished, however. In an expansion of their efforts, they plan to issue “experimental” 15-day forecasts every two weeks between August and the end of October. Their next report is scheduled for August 4.
The researchers Probability Chart is here: http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/Caribbean-CentralAmericaLandfallProbabilities.xls
The overall hurricane forecast report is here: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2009/june2009/jun2009.pdf