Researchers see tiny hurricane threat

Wx_chart The hurricane season which began Monday may be quite mild in the U.S. Virgin Islands, according to Colorado State University researchers. 

Philip Klotzbach and William Gray issued their third forecast for this year and again reduced their expectations of Atlantic storms.

They say there may be 11 named storms, five of which may develop into hurricanes.  But the VIs appear ‘safe,” which of course is a relative term.

In an expansion of their usual work, Klotzbach and Gray have also projected the chances of hurricanes coming within 100 and 50 miles of 32 countries or land masses, from Anguilla to the VIs.

The probability of one or mare Major Hurricanes (category 3,4 or 5) tracking within 50 miles of the USVI is put at 4%, the researchers said.  There is a 14% chance a category 1 or 2 storm coming within 50 miles of the islands.

Klotzbach and Gray are not finished, however.  In an expansion of their efforts, they plan to issue “experimental” 15-day forecasts every two weeks between August and the end of October.  Their next report is scheduled for August 4.

The researchers Probability Chart is here: http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/Caribbean-CentralAmericaLandfallProbabilities.xls

The overall hurricane forecast report is here: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2009/june2009/jun2009.pdf

2 thoughts on “Researchers see tiny hurricane threat”

  1. Thought your readers might find the information on Hurricane Hugo interesting. When a hurricane (hurricane Bill)of this size is heading your way and you have 2 boats in the water, it gets your attention. At the moment 8/22 AM I will be leaving the boats on their moorings in Chatham, MA but tropical storm force winds are extending out for 275 miles so I will be putting on some extra tie downs. Not having to haul out left me some extra time yesterday to reminisce about riding out Hurricane Hugo on a 59′ Trimaran in Culebra, PR http://wp.me/pb0Ok-28ding me.

  2. Experience never misleads; what you are missed by is only your judgement, and this misleads you by anticipating results from experience of a kind that is not produced by your experements. Do you think so?

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