Phil KlotzbachWilliam Gray also say there is a 64% chance a big one will hit the coastline of the US.
"We anticipate the current El Nino event to dissipate by the 2010 hurricane season and warm sea temperatures are likely to continue being present in the tropical and North Atlantic … conditions that contribute to an above-average season," they said in their annual forecast.Overall the storm researchers expect 2010 will be a year with above-average activity, with as many as 16 named storms and half of them possibly becoming hurricanes. Last year's forecast from the tropical Meteorology Project was essentially the same; as many as 14 named storms, a 63% chance one would hit the US coast and "above average major landfall hurricane risk in the Caribbean."
There were nine named storms last year and only two hurricanes. none hit the US coast. "Activity in 2009 was reduced considerably due largely to the moderate El Niño event that developed," Gray and Klotzbach said.
And we all know how that turned out. Let's hope they're wrong again.
- The 2010 forecast: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/
- Figure courtesy of Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com)